Market Detail Page
Deep-dive a single market: price history, depth, AI take
The Market Detail page is where you go from "this market looks interesting" to an actual decision. Every market on Polymarket and Kalshi gets its own dedicated page at `/dashboard/market/[id]`, pulling together price history, order-book depth, Predite's AI probability estimate, liquidity and volume stats, the full resolution criteria, related markets, and a trade panel — all on one screen so you never have to tab back and forth between Predite, the exchange, and a spreadsheet.
This page is the natural landing spot after you click any market in the [EV Scanner](/docs/ev-scanner), a notification, or a whale's recent trade. Think of it as the cockpit for a single contract.
## What the page shows
The layout is organized top-to-bottom into a header, a charts column, an intelligence panel, and a trade panel. Here is what each block contains and how to read it.
### Market header
At the very top you get the full market question exactly as it appears on the source exchange, the venue badge (Polymarket or Kalshi), the close/resolution date, and the market's current status (Open, Closing Soon, Resolving, or Resolved). A small source link takes you to the original market page on the exchange if you want to verify anything against the venue directly.
For multi-outcome markets (e.g. "Who will win the election?"), the header includes an outcome selector. The rest of the page — charts, AI estimate, trade panel — updates to reflect whichever outcome you select. Always confirm you are looking at the outcome you intend to trade; this is the single most common source of confusion on multi-outcome markets.
### Current YES/NO price
Directly under the header you see the live YES and NO prices, quoted in cents (a contract that resolves YES pays out $1.00, so a YES price of 63c implies the market is pricing a 63% chance). Predite shows:
- **YES bid / ask and NO bid / ask** — the best available prices on each side, so you can immediately see the spread.
- •**Mid price** — the midpoint between best bid and best ask, which is the cleaner number to compare against the AI probability.
- •**Last traded price** and the **24h change** so you can tell whether the market just moved.
Prices stream in near real time. A subtle flash on update tells you the quote just changed. If a market is thin, expect the spread between bid and ask to be wide — that gap is a real cost you pay on entry and exit, and it is one of the things the trade panel accounts for.
### Price history chart
The main chart plots the YES (or selected outcome) price over time. Use the range toggles to switch between 1H, 24H, 7D, 30D, and All. A few practical ways to use it:
- **Spot the regime.** Is the price drifting steadily, chopping in a range, or did it just gap on news? A gap usually means information arrived — cross-reference the [News & Calendar](/docs/news-calendar) feed before assuming the move is noise.
- •**Compare against the AI line.** When your plan includes it, the chart overlays Predite's historical AI probability as a second line. Persistent gaps between market price and the AI line are exactly the situations the [EV Scanner](/docs/ev-scanner) is built to surface — this is where you confirm the edge has been durable rather than a one-tick blip.
- •**Check for liquidity events.** Sharp single-candle spikes that immediately revert are often a single large order sweeping a thin book, not a genuine repricing.
Hover anywhere on the chart to get a tooltip with the exact price, timestamp, and (where available) volume at that point.
### Order-book depth chart
Below price history is the order-book depth chart — a visualization of resting bids and asks on the exchange's CLOB. The left side (green) shows cumulative bid liquidity; the right side (red) shows cumulative ask liquidity. This is the single most under-used tool on the page and it answers the question that actually matters before you trade: **how much can I buy or sell before I move the price?**
How to read it:
1. Find the current mid price in the center. 2. Walk outward to the size you intend to trade. The steeper the wall on your side, the more slippage you will eat to fill that size. 3. Look for large flat shelves — these are big resting orders that act as temporary support or resistance.
A shallow book (the curves rise slowly) means even a modest order pushes price meaningfully. A deep book means you can size up without much impact. The trade panel uses this same book data to estimate your fill, but eyeballing the depth chart first builds intuition for whether the market can actually absorb your intended position. For breaking down a large order so you do not walk the book, see [TWAP Orders](/docs/twap-orders).
### AI probability, edge, and confidence
This is Predite's core intelligence block, and it sits right next to the price so you can compare the two at a glance.
- **AI probability** — Predite's independent estimate of the true probability the market resolves YES, expressed as a percentage. This is generated by the model described in [AI Probability](/docs/ai-probability); it is *not* simply the market price.
- •**Edge** — the difference between the AI probability and the current market mid price, shown in percentage points and as an EV figure. A positive edge on YES means the model thinks YES is underpriced; a positive edge on NO means the opposite. Edge is the number the EV Scanner ranks markets on.
- •**Confidence** — how much weight to put on the estimate, shown as High / Medium / Low (or a 0–100 score depending on your view setting). Confidence reflects data coverage, how settled the underlying situation is, and model agreement. A 12-point edge at Low confidence is a very different trade from a 5-point edge at High confidence.
The golden rule: **edge and confidence are read together, never alone.** A large edge tells you the potential reward; confidence tells you how much to trust it and therefore how much to size. We walk through exactly how to combine them in [Reading Signals](/docs/reading-signals), and how to turn that into a position size in the [Kelly Calculator](/docs/kelly-calculator).
This block also surfaces a short, plain-language rationale — the key drivers behind the estimate — so you are never staring at a number with no explanation. For a deeper back-and-forth on any specific market, open [AI Chat](/docs/ai-chat) directly from here and ask why the model lands where it does.
### Volume, liquidity, and market stats
A compact stats strip gives you the health metrics of the market:
- **24h volume** — how much has traded recently. Low volume markets reprice slowly and can trap you in a position you cannot exit cleanly.
- •**Total liquidity** — the depth of resting orders, summarizing the depth chart in a single number.
- •**Open interest** (where the venue reports it) — total outstanding contracts.
- •**Spread** — best ask minus best bid, the round-trip friction.
Treat these as a go / no-go filter. A juicy edge on a market with $400 of daily volume and a 6c spread is usually not tradeable at any meaningful size — the friction eats the edge.
### Resolution criteria
Possibly the most important block on the page, and the one traders skip at their peril. This shows the **exact resolution criteria** as defined by the source exchange: what condition must be met for YES, who or what the resolution source is, and the precise close and resolution timestamps.
Most "bad" prediction-market trades are not wrong forecasts — they are misread rules. Before you risk a cent:
- Read the resolution source. "According to AP" and "according to the official government release" can resolve differently and on different timelines.
- •Check edge cases. What happens on a tie, a postponement, or an ambiguous outcome? Many markets have explicit tie-break or void language.
- •Confirm the timezone on the close date.
Predite surfaces this text, but the source exchange is always the final authority — the link in the header takes you there to confirm.
### Related markets
At the bottom, Predite lists related markets: the same underlying event on the other venue (useful for cross-venue price comparison), other outcomes in the same event group, and thematically similar markets. Two high-value uses:
- **Cross-venue arbitrage.** If the same event is priced 61c on Polymarket and 56c on Kalshi, there may be a risk-free or near-risk-free spread. Predite's [Arbitrage](/docs/arbitrage) tools formalize this, but related markets is where you often spot it first.
- •**Building a thesis.** Correlated markets (e.g. "Fed cuts in June" and "Fed cuts in July") let you sanity-check whether a single market's price is consistent with the rest of the curve.
## The quick trade panel
The right-hand trade panel lets you act on what you just analyzed without leaving the page. It supports two modes, toggled at the top of the panel: **Paper** and **Live**.
### Placing a paper trade
Paper trading is available on **every plan**, including Starter, and it is the right place to start. To place one:
1. Make sure the toggle is set to **Paper**. 2. Choose your side — **YES** or **NO** (or the selected outcome). 3. Enter your size, either in number of shares or in dollars. The panel converts between the two automatically. 4. Review the **estimated fill price** and **estimated slippage**, which the panel computes by walking the live order book for your size — so a large order against a thin book will show a worse average price than the top-of-book quote. 5. Check the auto-filled summary: cost, max payout, max profit, and break-even probability. 6. Click **Place Paper Trade**.
The fill is simulated against the real book and logged to your [Trade Journal](/docs/trade-journal) and [Portfolio](/docs/portfolio), so your paper track record uses realistic fills, not fantasy top-of-book prices. This is the fastest way to pressure-test the AI signal on real markets with zero capital at risk — see [Paper Trading](/docs/paper-trading) for how to run a disciplined paper program before going live.
### Placing a live trade
Live trading routes a real order to the exchange and **requires the Bot plan ($99/mo)**, plus a connected wallet or exchange account. On Starter and Pro the Live toggle is visible but locked, with an upgrade prompt.
Before your first live order, complete [Connecting Your Wallet](/docs/connecting-wallet) and review [Live Trading](/docs/live-trading) and [Security](/docs/security). Then:
1. Switch the panel toggle to **Live**. 2. Confirm the connected account shown in the panel is the one you intend to trade from. 3. Select side and size as above. 4. Choose order type where supported — a marketable order for immediate fill, or a limit price if you want to rest an order on the book. 5. Review the live estimated fill, fees, and total cost. **These are real funds.** 6. Confirm. The order is submitted to the venue's CLOB and your position appears in [Portfolio](/docs/portfolio).
The panel pre-fills a suggested size from the [Kelly Calculator](/docs/kelly-calculator) when you have it enabled, so your sizing follows the edge and confidence rather than gut feel. For larger positions that would move a thin market, place a [TWAP order](/docs/twap-orders) instead of a single market order to spread the fill over time and reduce slippage.
## Tips and gotchas
- **Always compare mid price to AI probability, not last price.** Last traded price can be stale on quiet markets; mid is the honest reference.
- •**Respect the spread.** On a market with a 4c spread, you start ~4c underwater on a round trip. Your edge has to clear that before you make a dollar.
- •**A big edge at low confidence is a small position, not a no position** — but size it down hard. Confidence is your sizing dial.
- •**Thin liquidity quietly kills edges.** Use the depth chart and the volume stat together; the trade panel's slippage estimate is your final reality check.
- •**Read the resolution criteria every single time.** The page surfaces them precisely so you have no excuse — misread rules are the most expensive mistakes in this market.
- •**Set an alert instead of staring.** If price has not yet reached your entry, configure a [Notification](/docs/notifications) for a price or edge threshold and let Predite ping you.
- •**Multi-outcome markets:** double-check the selected outcome before trading. The whole page reflects your selection.
## How it connects to the rest of Predite
The Market Detail page is the hub the other features point into. You arrive here from the [EV Scanner](/docs/ev-scanner) when an edge surfaces, from the [Whale Tracker](/docs/whale-tracker) when a large trader moves, and from [News & Calendar](/docs/news-calendar) when an event is about to hit. From here you analyze with [AI Probability](/docs/ai-probability) and [AI Chat](/docs/ai-chat), size with the [Kelly Calculator](/docs/kelly-calculator), and act through paper or live trading — with every fill flowing into your [Portfolio](/docs/portfolio) and [Trade Journal](/docs/trade-journal). Master this one page and you have the core Predite workflow end to end.
## Related Docs
- [EV Scanner](/docs/ev-scanner)
- •[AI Probability](/docs/ai-probability)
- •[Reading Signals](/docs/reading-signals)
- •[Paper Trading](/docs/paper-trading)